Newsletter #9 — upcoming What Trump Misreads About the Islamic Republic's Calculus Beyond Victims: Women as Peacebuilders and Mediators — Lessons from Cameroon The Past Is Still at War: Memory and the Unfinished Conflict Between Serbia and Kosovo Algeria's expanding influence in Libya and the border-security implications Newsletter #9 — upcoming What Trump Misreads About the Islamic Republic's Calculus Beyond Victims: Women as Peacebuilders and Mediators — Lessons from Cameroon The Past Is Still at War: Memory and the Unfinished Conflict Between Serbia and Kosovo Algeria's expanding influence in Libya and the border-security implications
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Politics · Lead story August 30, 2026 6 min read
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What has the Trump administration in its war with Iran failed to understand about Tehran’s behaviour and objectives?

What Trump Misreads About the Islamic Republic's Calculus

By not taking a historical view of how Iran operates in putting spheres of influence and preservation of its political order ahead of economic interests, the United States miscalculated on eventual outcomes of a war it started.

What Trump Misreads About the Islamic Republic's Calculus
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The United States has long been operating under the idea that if it puts a vice grip on Iran’s economy, its leaders will eventually become more reasonable. The reality is that Tehran puts economic interests behind hefz-e nezam, the preservation of the political order. That order includes maintaining control of proxy forces through Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and elsewhere. The Islamic Republic is more likely to change course when it can show its own people that any compromise with the United States is a tactical decision, not a public defeat.
Omid Omidvar — What Trump Misreads About the Islamic Republic's Calculus
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